Welcome back to Markets Desk, here's what's moving the needle right now.
The geopolitical picture is deteriorating fast. Several Americans were wounded in a missile strike on a Kuwaiti air base, and a White House Situation Room meeting on extending the Iran ceasefire ended without any public conclusion. President Trump had earlier signaled a deal was close, leaving markets and allies parsing contradictory signals out of Washington.
Compounding that tension, the U.S. Treasury drew a hard line on Hormuz transit. Any arrangement with Iran guaranteeing safe passage through the strait is now explicitly prohibited for American persons and entities, whether money changes hands or not. That ruling has significant implications for global shipping lanes and energy supply chains that run through one of the world's most critical chokepoints.
Turning to the domestic economy, a Brookings Institution report is putting hard numbers on the cost of the administration's immigration enforcement surge. Researchers estimate six hundred sixty eight thousand jobs were lost as ICE operations created what the report calls a chilling effect across local economies, hitting businesses and American-born workers alike, not just immigrant communities.
That's the tape. Markets Desk, signing off the floor.
