The CBS Sports model, which has accurately tracked NBA playoff outcomes across multiple seasons, identifies a structural advantage for Cleveland entering Game 3 of their first-round series against Toronto on Wednesday. According to the model's analysis of player efficiency ratings and defensive matchups, the point spread has widened by two points in favor of the Cavaliers since the series opener, driven by Toronto's inability to defend Cleveland's pick-and-roll sets — the Cavaliers shot 54 percent from the field in Game 2. The shift reflects statistical adjustments, not sentiment. Yet the Raptors return to Scotiabank Arena, where home-court noise historically depresses opposing free-throw percentages by roughly three points. Whether that variable offsets Cleveland's schematic edge remains the pivotal tension as the series reaches its second act.