Good afternoon and welcome to Markets Desk.
The Fed is front and center today as Chair Kevin Warsh is expected to withhold his individual rate projection from the FOMC's quarterly dot plot release. That's a significant break from convention, signaling that Warsh may be distancing himself from the committee's consensus view on the path of interest rates, and traders are watching closely for what that absence implies about the Fed's internal divisions.
Turning to Iran, the Trump administration and Tehran have agreed on a framework for a nuclear deal, and markets are parsing every detail ahead of the full text being released. The immediate read is lower geopolitical risk premium on oil, which pressures energy equities, while broader risk assets get a modest tailwind. The durability of that move depends entirely on what the fine print says.
Meanwhile, the dollar's reserve currency status is drawing renewed scrutiny from a prominent think tank, which argues the Trump administration's use of the dollar as an active foreign policy instrument is eroding the trust that underpins its extraordinary global role. Dollar weaponization has a cost, and that cost compounds quietly until it doesn't.
That's the tape. Markets Desk, signing off the floor.
