Good afternoon and welcome to Markets Desk.
Crude oil is the dominant story in commodities today, with West Texas Intermediate surging nearly four percent after President Trump cast doubt on a ceasefire with Iran. June contracts are trading above one hundred one dollars a barrel, and gasoline futures are following sharply higher. When geopolitical risk re-enters the equation around a major producing region, energy markets reprice fast and hard.
That oil move is rippling into cotton, though not in the direction you might expect. Cotton futures are actually sliding, down roughly seventy-three to eighty-eight points on the session. A stronger dollar, up nearly half a point to ninety-eight point two six five, is weighing on dollar-denominated commodities. The USDA Cotton Ginnings report showed total production of thirteen point five three nine million running bales, and with old crop stocks holding steady, there is simply no supply shock to offset that currency headwind.
Stepping back from the price action, a sharp piece of analysis worth your attention argues that the real danger from Iran tensions is not the oil spike itself. Markets can absorb higher prices. What erodes confidence and suppresses investment is the fog of uncertainty that follows when nobody can model what comes next. That is the harder, slower damage.
That's the tape. Markets Desk, signing off the floor.
