Welcome to Markets Desk, your midday read on what's moving markets and the macro landscape.
Gary Shilling is putting a sixty to seventy percent probability on a US recession arriving within the next twelve months, and the consumer data is doing little to argue against him. Retail sales dropped unexpectedly in July, and with borrowing costs still elevated and energy prices biting, household wallets are quietly snapping shut.
Shifting to the bond market, Stanley Druckenmiller is calling the thirty-year Treasury the last fiscal disciplinarian standing in Washington. That's a pointed warning. With the government doubling its long-dated buybacks to four billion dollars, investors are still selling long bonds on debt and inflation concerns, keeping pressure on yields at the long end of the curve.
And on the trade front, Prime Minister Mark Carney is pushing back hard against Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, saying Canada will return to the negotiating table, quote, when the Americans are ready. Ottawa has already matched Washington's fifty percent tariffs dollar for dollar, with those retaliatory duties set to hit US goods next week, raising the stakes considerably for both economies.
That's the tape. Markets Desk, signing off the floor.
